Thailand has revised its tourism outlook downward, cutting the 2026 international arrivals forecast from 36.7 million to 33 million. The government has set a similarly modest target of at least 33 million for 2027, maintaining this lower ambition for the coming year. Between January 1 and October 17, the country recorded 24.4 million arrivals, representing a 4.1% decline compared to the previous year. Current daily visitor numbers stand at approximately 69,000, which is far below the roughly 114,000 daily arrivals required to meet the annual goal.
Despite these weaker arrival figures, supply expansion continues unabated across the hospitality and aviation sectors. As of the end of June, there were 167 hotel projects in the national pipeline, including 67 in Bangkok and 44 in Phuket. In Phuket alone, C9 Hotelworks counts 30 hotels with 5,517 rooms coming online, with about 40% of these scheduled for completion in 2027. Additionally, Marriott International signed agreements in October to develop seven hotels with FICO Corporation.
Market performance is showing distinct splits by segment and location. In Bangkok, the third-quarter RevPAR fell 5.3% from the previous quarter to 2,532 baht. However, Greg Condon of Cushman & Wakefield noted that luxury guests appear less sensitive to financial pressures, suggesting that new luxury openings could help lift rates. Conversely, Phuket's luxury and upscale segments saw occupancy drop to 80% in the first half of the year from 84.1%, while the Average Daily Rate (ADR) declined by 4% to 6,820 baht.
On the aviation front, airlines are targeting new source markets to diversify visitor flows. LOT Polish Airlines resumed service to Bangkok in October, and Belavia added routes connecting Minsk to both Bangkok and Phuket, aiming to capture demand from Eastern Europe where current visitor numbers remain relatively low. Data from Amadeus indicates that forward bookings for the fourth quarter are up 2.8% year over year. While this signals improving demand, it is not yet sufficient to close the gap in arrivals for the current year.
Sources: Skift.